Spectral backtests of forecast distributions with application to risk...
We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic is a spectral transformation that weights exceedance events by a function of the modeled probability level. The...
View ArticleVector-Valued Multivariate Conditional Value-at-Risk. (arXiv:1708.01324v1...
In this study, we propose a new definition of multivariate conditional value-at-risk (MCVaR) as a set of vectors for discrete probability spaces. We explore the properties of the vector-valued MCVaR...
View ArticleDollar pricing redux
A country's exchange rate is at the center of economic and political debates on currency wars and trade competitiveness. The real consequences of exchange rate fluctuations depend critically on how...
View ArticleWorld changes in inequality: an overview of facts, causes, consequences and...
This paper reviews various issues linked to the rise of inequality observed particularly in developed countries over the last quarter century. Various data on the time profile of inequality are...
View ArticleThe FinTech Opportunity
This paper assesses the potential impact of FinTech on the finance industry. I document first that financial services remain surprisingly expensive, which explains the emergence of new entrants. I then...
View ArticleDemographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends
Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade...
View ArticleSympathy for the Diligent and the Demand for Workfare -- by Andres Drenik,...
We study the role of fairness concerns in the demand for redistribution through workfare. In the first part of the paper, we present new evidence from a survey experiment. We show that individuals are...
View ArticleThe Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind -- by Francois Gourio, Anil K...
Credit booms sometimes lead to financial crises which are accompanied with severe and persistent economic slumps. Does this imply that monetary policy should "lean against the wind" and counteract...
View ArticleThe Emergence of Weak, Despotic and Inclusive States -- by Daron Acemoglu,...
Societies under similar geographic and economic conditions and subject to similar external influences nonetheless develop very different types of states. At one extreme are weak states with little...
View ArticleThe Uptick in Income Segregation: Real Trend or Random Sampling Variance --...
Recent studies have reported a reversal of an earlier trend in income segregation in metropolitan regions, from a decline in the 1990s to an increase in the 2000-2010 decade. This finding reinforces...
View ArticleConsumption and Income Inequality in the U.S. Since the 1960s -- by Bruce D....
Official income inequality statistics indicate a sharp rise in inequality over the past five decades. These statistics do not accurately reflect inequality because income is poorly measured,...
View ArticleWhich Banks Recover From Large Adverse Shocks? -- by Emilia Bonaccorsi di...
We analyze the fate of 110 Italian banks that experienced abrupt drops in profitability, from which about 1/3 recover. Recovery depends primarily on post-shock adjustments made by the banks,...
View ArticleThe Structure of State Corporate Taxation and its Impact on State Tax...
This paper documents facts about the state corporate tax structure -- tax rates, base rules, and credits -- and investigates its consequences for state tax revenue and economic activity. We present...
View ArticleRationally Inattentive Behavior: Characterizing and Generalizing Shannon...
We provide a full behavioral characterization of the standard Shannon model of rational inattention. The key axiom is "Invariance under Compression", which identifies this model as capturing an ideal...
View ArticleMonetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital -- by Elena Gerko, Helene Rey
The importance of financial markets and international capital flows have increased greatly since the 1990s. How does this affect the effectiveness of monetary policy? We analyse the transmission of...
View ArticleInvestment-Horizon Spillovers -- by Alexander M. Chinco, Mao Ye
This paper uses wavelets to decompose each stock's trading-volume variance into frequency-specific components. We find that stocks dominated by short-run fluctuations in trading volume have abnormal...
View ArticleValuing Pain using the Subjective Well-being Method -- by Thorhildur...
Chronic pain clearly lowers utility, but it is empirically challenging to estimate the monetary compensation needed to offset this utility reduction. We use the subjective well-being method to estimate...
View ArticleSurvival Ambiguity and Welfare -- by Frank N. Caliendo, Aspen Gorry, Sita Slavov
Nearly all life-cycle models adopt Yaari's (1965) assumption that individuals know the survival probabilities that they face. Given that an individual's exact survival probabilities are likely unknown,...
View ArticlePolitical Distribution Risk and Aggregate Fluctuations -- by Thorsten...
We argue that political distribution risk is an important driver of aggregate fluctuations. To that end, we document significant changes in the capital share after large political events, such as...
View ArticleA Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods,...
The present study has two objectives. The first is a review of studies that estimate the global economic impacts of climate change using a systematic research synthesis (SRS). In this review, we...
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